What Is The Future Of The GOP?

Spoiler alert - it's not great for libertarians

Recently, when I was on Ben Swann’s podcast, he asked me what I thought the future of the GOP would be. This was the Wednesday after Election Day and while it wasn’t official it was fairly obvious that Trump would not be winning a second term as President. At that time I wasn’t so sure what that future would look like - that was when prominent Republicans were not even entertaining the idea of a Trump loss, at least not publicly. Since then there has been a slow acceptance of a Trump loss among Republicans, with even Lindsey Graham calling for Biden to be given access to the presidential daily briefs as part of the transition process. Trump himself seems to privately accept his loss as well, with rumors circulating that he’s discussed both a 2024 presidential run and the possibility of starting a digital media company to compete with Fox News. 

I’ve been giving some thought to Swann’s question and I think we are starting to get a better idea what the GOP will look like post-Trump. Of course, nothing is certain at this point and Trump’s unwillingness to concede and allow the presidential transition process to start is putting a hold on any inter-GOP transition plan. Judging from some of the statements from elected Republicans and GOP supporters, I think we can gain some insights as to what the next phase of the Republican party will look like.

One caveat before I go forward - what happens with the two Georgia Senate seats will be massive in shaping the direction of the GOP. My very preliminary prediction is that the seats will be split between Republicans and Democrats, which would preserve the Republican majority in the Senate. If the Republicans should lose both seats, which would mean the loss of their Senate majority (and also the state of Georgia), I can see all hell breaking loose in the GOP with really ugly results. 

One of the biggest questions coming out of the 2020 election, especially since we have the split decision of voting out Trump but keeping Republicans in general, was is this the death of Trumpism. To which I ask; what is your definition of Trumpism? Is it a political style or a set of policy positions? 

If your definition revolves around political style then I’d say yes, Trumpism is dead. There will be plenty of Republicans who will try to ape his style but they lack the ability to really nail it. For all of his faults, Trump knows how to put on a show better than anyone else in politics currently. He spent over 30 years in the entertainment industry before going into politics and it shows; he knows how to play to a camera and an audience. There is nobody on the Republican bench with the skill and chutzpah to be “the next Donald Trump.” 

However, if your definition revolves around policy positions, then yes Trumpism is very much here to stay. The keystones of his policy - a hardline anti-immigration stance and economic nationalism - will be part of the GOP for the foreseeable future. Marco Rubio, who is possibly eyeing a 2024 presidential run, said in an interview with Axios that the GOP needs to pivot away from being the party that supports business and free market principles to one that supports the working class. Even more telling, Rubio states that

"We still have a very strong base in the party of donors and think tanks and intelligentsia from the right who are market fundamentalists, who accuse anyone who's not a market fundamentalist of being a socialist to some degree... If the takeaway from all of them is now is the time to go back to sort of the traditional party of unfettered free trade, I think we're gonna lose the [Trump] base as quickly as we got it. ... We can't just go back to being that"

This is, to put it lightly, suboptimal news for libertarians who had traditionally viewed Republicans as their kin on economic issues. It is looking like the old school small government fiscal conservatism loving GOP is gone. Not that this should come as a shock - remember Tucker Carlson’s giddiness over Elizabeth Warren’s economic plans? - but the fact that this is where the Republican party is now is slightly heartbreaking. 

For all of the establishment Republicans who are coming around to admitting Trump lost, there is still a noisy contingent of Trump supporters who are cheering for him to ride it out till the bitter end. The best summarization of this mindset can be found on The American Mind, with a piece from the editors claiming that voter fraud is rampant and that Trump must fight it and the Democratic party by any means necessary. There are plenty of social media conservatives still committed to the scorched earth agenda of calling this election into question, despite the fact that Republicans have kept their Senate majority and cut into the Democrat majority in the House. I’m not entirely sure where this energy goes once Trump leaves the White House but I am sure it doesn’t simply dissipate. 

For now we are still stuck in The Trump Show, and how that show ends will have an impact on how the GOP is perceived going forward. As of now it seems the GOP is intent on moving far away from anything resembling a small government fiscally conservative political party and that should make you very nervous.