Everybody Hates (Or Loves) Rogan

In case you have somehow missed the latest Joe Rogan controversy, all the usual suspects are once again mad at him for “platforming COVID misinformation.” Neil Young and Joni Mitchell have pulled their content from Spotify in protest, and several podcasters have announced that they will stop releasing episodes on the platform until it…well everyone is acting coy about what they really want, which is for Spotify to nullify its contract with Rogan and kick him off the platform. 

Since I’ve already discussed this latest round of Rogan drama here and here (yes that is a shameless plug for my new podcast with Noam Blum, Ambitious Crossover Attempt), I’ll list my thoughts on the latest developments here.

The best thing that could happen to Joe Rogan would be for Spotify to kick him off the platform. It’s no secret that he lost a good chunk of his audience when he went exclusive, releasing him from his contract would allow him to go back to releasing his content on multiple platforms and regain his audience. 

Rogan may be a meathead stoner jock, but he’s not an idiot when it comes to business; he extracted promises from Spotify that it would not attempt to alter the form or content of his podcast, and I’d imagine he negotiated for a hefty payout in the event of Spotify canceling his contract. The only question I have is about who owns the IP rights to Rogan’s catalog and the content he produced for Spotify but again, Rogan isn’t an idiot and I’m sure there are clauses in his contract that allow him to regain ownership of his content. 

The idea that kicking Rogan off Spotify will make him disappear is really dumb. He’ll go back to making his show the same way he did pre-Spotify, likely with a nice payout from the platform. Rogan didn’t need Spotify, Spotify needed Rogan. 

This has been an amazing PR gain for Rogan, as most attempted cancellations of very famous people tend to be.

Rogan is not, and has never claimed to be, an expert on anything. The idea that he is supposed to fact-check guests in real-time is absurd. 

This is hardly the first time someone has tried to get Spotify to break its deal with Rogan —  this has been an ongoing campaign since the deal was announced. Thus far Spotify has told everyone to pound sand, we will see if that continues to be their stance.

Depending on which report you read, Spotify has lost anywhere from $2B to $4B in share value since this controversy started. That’s a lot of money. 

If Spotify did nullify its contract with Rogan, it'd stand to lose a lot more money. Between whatever they would have to pay him, the loss of subscription fees as his listeners cancel their memberships, and the bad press of breaking up with Rogan, its market value would take another substantial hit. 

The best analogy to the Spotify - Rogan deal is the deal Sirius made to bring Howard Stern to satellite radio. And just as Sirius knew exactly what they were getting with Stern, Spotify knew exactly what they were getting with Rogan. I would have to assume Spotify knew that dealing with controversy would be part of the deal. 

The longer this controversy goes on, the more apparent it is that this isn’t about hurting Rogan but about hurting Spotify for signing him. Combine that with the repeated attacks on Substack and a pretty sinister picture starts to emerge. 

I don’t know if those who are trying to get Rogan kicked off Spotify have thought about it from the company’s perspective — one does not simply cut loose the most popular podcast in the world, one that it made a $100M deal to get, because a few artists and podcasters get angry. From a business perspective, Spotify's choice should be a no-brainer. 

What happens from here is anyone’s guess, but my feeling is that Spotify sticks with Rogan; the platform has too much to lose by letting him go.